Scenarios evaluated

7 are illustrated here. Each scenario corresponds to a different amount of contact rate, and can be understood in terms of:

Scenario % of orig. R0 % increase from current Effective R0
0 25.0 0 0.98
1 37.5 50 1.47
2 50.0 100 1.96
3 62.5 150 2.44
4 75.0 200 2.93
5 87.5 250 3.42
6 100.0 300 3.91

Increase contact rate on May 16th, 2020 by variable amounts


Scenario 0

Equal to:

  • The Effective \(R0\): 0.98
  • % of original R0: 25
  • % Increase from current: 0

Scenario 1

Equal to:

  • The Effective \(R0\): 1.47
  • % of original R0: 37.5
  • % Increase from current: 50

Scenario 2

Equal to:

  • The Effective \(R0\): 1.96
  • % of original R0: 50
  • % Increase from current: 100

Scenario 3

Equal to:

  • The Effective \(R0\): 2.44
  • % of original R0: 62.5
  • % Increase from current: 150

Scenario 4

Equal to:

  • The Effective \(R0\): 2.93
  • % of original R0: 75
  • % Increase from current: 200

Scenario 5

Equal to:

  • The Effective \(R0\): 3.42
  • % of original R0: 87.5
  • % Increase from current: 250

Scenario 6

Equal to:

  • The Effective \(R0\): 3.91
  • % of original R0: 100
  • % Increase from current: 300